My Two Cents Worth: An A$ Gold Price Forecast for 2007
The Aussie dollar pushed close to, if not through 80¢ this week, which surprised me no end as the research I've been reading for the past few months had been tipping it would go the other way (70¢ - 74¢). It has risen for a number of reasons - an interest rate differential, solid commodity prices and slightly less worse than expected economic data coming out of the USA. What this means to Australian numismatists is items priced in US$ are now cheaper than expected to buy (precious metals included).
I've had a few clients ask me what my thoughts are on the A$ gold price this year, and although as a commodity forecaster I make an excellent coin dealer, here is my 2¢ worth: the precious metals forecasts I've read (sources range from merchant banks to kooks wearing aluminium foil hats to stop the CIA reading their brainwaves) put US$ gold anywhere between U$625 and US$725 this year. Couple that range with an expected A$ exchange rate range of between US70¢ and US81¢, and we have an A$ gold range of between A$780 and A$1,030.
I personally believe a realistic range is between A$800 and A$900 - we're at A$805 at present, so could be looking at a 12% rise this year, and possibly up to 20-30%. I don't see any downside at the moment - US$ gold is well supported and there is nothing in play (yet) that would push the A$ higher than where it is now.
If you're looking to set some money aside in something that's easy peasy, good value and probably has some growth in it, I'd be looking at gold & silver bullion coins, and even numismatic sovereigns priced a little over their metal value. There are a number of coins just like this in my online shop, don't hesitate to call or email if you'd like to bounce some possible buys off me.